The Wisdom of Philip Collins

Daniel Finkelstien and Philip Collins sometimes have a bit of an exchange, documented in The Times Comment Central Blog.

In the latest one, the Fink asks if Labour 'get' what will probably happen at the next General Election, and Philip in reply basically says a big NO, and outlines what they need to do...

Here's what they have to do. Get Alan Johnson into No10. Identify three big themes and hammer on them and nothing else. Run a campaign that says Cameron doesn't really know who he is and, although he's a decent guy, he has no clue, really, about what to do.

If all of that goes perfectly and if the moon aligns with the stars, you have an outside shot of a hung Parliament.

I think that speaks volumes about the scale of the problem that Labour have now. The fact is that virtually nothing will now change that, and all they can do is go into damage limitation mode.

The problem for Labour is that the top of the party shows no sign of even attempting to enter that mode. They had a real chance after the Local Elections to do so, and they fluffed it. Bottled it. Chickened out. There will probably not be another serious chance before the next Election.

This leaves the rest of us with the almost macabre spectacle of a party that is only holding together for appearances sake. As soon as the election is over, and they are freed from the shackles of having to put up a public face, the various factions will start to pull violently in different directions. The state of the Conservative Party in late 1997 will have nothing on the state of the Labour party in late 2010.

Their parliamentary party will be reduced to a rump of very safe heartland seats. Experienced hands and up-and-coming MPs alike will be gone, leaving only a very few capable MPs from whom the party will have to pick a shadow cabinet. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that Brown himself will lose his seat. For Labour, this fate is all too possible, and one to which most Labour MPs now seem to have resigned themselves to.

They can't say they weren't warned.

Congratulations Chloe!

First of all, congratulations to Chloe Smith on becoming the youngest MP, the youngest Conservative MP for 30 years, and the youngest ever Female Conservative MP. I wasn't near a computer yesterday, so wasn't able to post then, but the result is simply stunning, and far beyond what anyone predicted. I thought we would be very lucky to get a 3000 majority, so over 7000 is absolutely incredible, and testamant not only to the candidate, but to the way the campaign was fought, and to all the hard work put in by everyone who helped out.

Comparing the results from the 2005 election to the by-election (see graph below from the BBC), two things are immediately clear. the first is that the Labour vote was decimated, and the second is that our vote only dropped slightly, despite a 15% lower turnout. The difference in turnout is about 11000 people, so you can clearly see that even if all those 11000 people were Labour voters (which they won't all have been), that means that labour still lost 4000 votes. Having our vote only drop by 2000 when 11000 fewer people voted is actually quite encouraging.



The other thing to note is that Norwich North will have boundary changes at the next election, and will have approx 1500 fewer Tory voters than at this by-election. So to have a majority of 7000 is very good news, as it hopefully means we'll keep hold of it at the General Election. If we had only had a majority of 2000 - 3000, it would have been very much harder to hold it.

The significance of this is that Norwich North is number 162 on the list of Target Seats. 162 extra seats would give us a majority of over 60, which would not only be a very nice working majority, but would also result in the likes of Jack Straw and Alistair Darling losing their seats.

Incidently, a bit of gossip on the ground in NN said that Alistair Darling is toast, almost certain to lose his Edinburgh South West seat at the next election...

The hypocrisy of Trevor Phillips

The BBC is reporting the Trevor Phillips, the head of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission, is facing calls to resign after four resignations in 8 days over his leadership of the commission.

Now, personally I really can't be arsed going through the detail of the allegations, although from what the BBC reports, it seems that there is a certain level of ineptitude in the Commission. What I really want to say through, is that I have thought for nearly a year now that Trevor Phillips isn't right to head up the commission. At last years Conservative Conference, I attended a fringe meeting on Human Rights, at which Trevor Phillips was guest speaker. I lost all respect for him while watching his pathetic attempts to justify as non-racist and non-divisive the Metropolitan Black Police Association.

Now, I am no racist, but it seems to me that if you wish to have a completely non-racist police force (or indeed, society), then ALL groups based on colour shouldn't be allowed. Imagine the outcry if there was a 'White Police Association', yet the head of the Equalities and Human Rights Commission tries to justify a Black Police Association. We should be promoting TOTAL equality in the police force, yet we still have a group that deliberately divides the police force by skin colour. How on earth can this be reconciled with trying to bring everyone in society together, regardless of skin colour?

Interestingly, on the website of the National Black Police Association, they state on the front page that 'Membership of the NBPA is open to all in policing on application. There is no bar to membership based on colour.' If this is so, then why call themselves the 'National Black Police Association'? why not simply the 'National Police Association'?

Pet hate of the day.

People who use cash machines to try and print their entire banking history while a long queue forms behind them.

Military-style organisation in Norwich North

I posted yesterday about the sheer military-style planning of our campaign in Norwich North, and as if to prove my point, today an email drops into Tory Activists inbox...

Dear Friend

Thank you very much for the help you have already given - the support I’ve received so far has been magnificent. I am truly grateful and I know that the Norwich North Conservative Association is delighted with all the support given by our Conservative friends from all over the country.

Over 1000 people have already travelled to Norwich North to help deliver leaflets and canvass in this by election.

Help us finish the job!
Will you please consider coming back for the last few days of the campaign and be part of the winning team? Every extra pair of hands will help us get out the vote and win.

There is more, but that is the jist of it. I'm quite seriously impressed that the campaign is emailing the people who have attended to ask them to return to help some more. I must confess that when I entered my email address on the signing in sheet, I just thought it would be used for sending me news updates from Central Ofice, which I already get anyway.

I'm really pleased to see that the campaigning team is making use of all the tools available to get activists like myself to help. Somehow I doubt that the opposition parties are this well organised.

Shameless Self Promotion

Ok, I've learnt that having a new blog that not many people read means that you do have to push it a bit (ok, a lot) to get people to even glance at it. Fortunately I have Google Analytics to track visitors to the site, which helps me to see what kind of level of readers I'm running at, and also means I can see spikes when I shamelessly self promote on other blogs (sorry!). Following on from this, I've also added the Total Politics Best Blogs Poll 2009 to my sidebar. I'm not going to beg you to vote for me (you probably think this blog is a bit shit anyway), but it would be nice! :)

Back Home from Norwich North

I'm now back home from Norwich North, having delivered approximately 1100 leaflets over two days, which my feet are all too aware of!

I have a few reflections which i'd like to share. Firstly, that our campaign is being run like a military operation. By the time of polling day, we will have delivered a total of 10 - 12 different leaflets/papers to every single house in Norwich North. And that's from us alone. God knows how many people are getting from the others.

I've seen leaflets from Labour (shit quality - slagging us off), Lib Dems (crap designs), UKIP and the BNP. Personally I think our leaflets are by far the best quality, and the most professional.

UKIP have bought up loads of poster sites around the constituency, as well as ad space on phone boxes, bus shelters, etc. You name it, it'll have the face of Glenn Tingle on it (is it just me that thinks his name sounds mildly rude?). It's obvious why UKIP have done this, as they have virtually no posters up in gardens or windows. By contrast, all three main parties have quite a lot up. The Green Party (who are quite strong in Norwich) have less, but they still have quite a few. Labours posters are concentrated in certain areas, whereas us and the Lib Dems have them in almost all areas.

It's obvious that the people of Norwich North are sick to the back teeth of getting election pamphlets through the box, but it seems almost like an arms race for the parties, where each party is afraid of falling behind and losing the battle.

So, my prediction:

1st. Conservatives
2nd. Labour
3rd. Lib Dems
4th. Greens
5th. BNP
6th. Craig Murray (the 'Put an Honest Man into Parliament' party - he's allegedly a complete looney)
7th. UKIP

then the rest.

The reason I say BNP for 5th is that the feeling I got was that they seem to be picking up a lot of the disenchanted Labour vote. Craig Murray also seems to have good name recognition in Norwich, and has put quite a few leaflets out. I therefore think they'll both outdo UKIP (although not by much).

Finally, although there are a lot of notes stuck on doors by people asking for no more leaflets, I did promise to post a pic of the best one I saw....



Quite how someone can reconcile the CND logo with a nazi swastika is beyond me...

A leafleters worst nightmare

Well it's the morning after the day before, and Tory Activist's legs and feet aren't feeling nearly as bad as it was imagined they would. I'll have to punish them some more today!

I forgot to post this yesterday, but Tory Activist has discovered the absolute worst thing about leafleting.

No, it's not dogs, low down letterboxes, long drives, or letterboxes that try to snap your fingers off.

It's gravel drives.

Attempting to march around Norwich North like some rabid General doesn't really work when you're trying to navigate a driveway that shifts position more often than a Lib Dem. You feel like you've walked twice the distance you have.

And in Norwich North, every second driveway is gravel...

Reflections on the day in Norwich North

Tory Activist is now nicely holed up in bed after a hard days campaigning in Norwich North, and a very good meal and discussion at the pub afterwards!

Obviously the best part about helping at by-elections is meeting other people who share a common interest, and the discussions this can lead to once you've finished for the day are always interesting. Tonight was no exception!

So for anyone who hasn't yet helped out, get yourself over here and lend a hand! Not only will you be helping the party, but you'll also make some good friends too.

One last thing, Tory Activist took a photo of a rather interesting/funny note stuck to a front door, which will be posted tomorrow, as TA can't seem to upload photos from phones directly to the web. Whether this is the fault of TA, the web, or the phone, is a matter for more discussion...

On the ground in Norwich North

Well I've been here for half an hour now, and have already delivered 100 leaflets! What strikes me most is the number of different parties displaying posters etc. I counted at least 6.

One guy told me he could paper his house with the amount of leaflets he's getting...

Testing my email blogging

This small post is a test to see if posting a message by sending an email from my phone actually works or not...

It will hopefully be used quite a bit in Norwich this weekend if it does. :)

Hague on Good Form

If anyone ever needed convincing as to why Willaim Hague is so admired by Conservative members, the video below shows exactly why. Able to perfectly balance high comedy with intense gravitas, he explains the pains that Gordon Brown might feel at the thought of Blair being President of Europe, while making a very serious point about the position of EU President.



Even David Milliband is having a good laugh!

Why We Need Strong Leadership

The BBCs Mark Easton posted an interesting analysis of the latest Ipsos/MORI poll a few days ago. I only saw it late last night (and it proved tricky to find again today), but it makes interesting reading.

The first graph is fairly interesting, suggesting as it does that most people don't want any public spending to be reduced:



However, look into other details, ask Joe Public different questions, and you'll find different answers. Like this one:



The results of this question seem to contradict the first question. If there are savings that can be made, then why object to making those savings? This is a wel known phenomenon, and is a direct result of asking almost the same question in a number of different ways. If the answer is the same, the data can be trusted. If not, then it can't. Basically in this case, it becomes obvious that Joe Public doesn't know what on earth they think, or want.

Thus is highlighted the danger of jumping on bandwagons and following the crowd. Sometimes the public just can't decide what it wants. Do we want spending on public services to be maintained at the same level, or do we want the waste to be cut out?

It used to be the case in the dim and distant past that pretty much everything politicians did was thought up and worked out by themselves, with no eye on what Joe Public wanted. If it was unpopular, the public wouldn't vote for them. However it did allow for joined-up government thinking, rather than knee-jerk reaction to the latest news headlines in an almost desperate attempt to catch the public mood. It also allowed for policies to be coherant and workable, with a much bigger chance of actually making a difference.

I'm not saying that pandering to the public mood is to blame for everything wrong with the country, but our politicians are supposed to be some of the brightest people in the country. They are elected to lead us, not to follow us. The results of the Ipsos/MORI poll show that we are useless at leading, so politicians should get their acts together and start doing what we elect them to do.

SNP Candidate for Glasgow North East Steps Down

James Dornan has today said he'll step down as the SNPs candidate for Michael Martins old seat of Glasgow North East, after it emerged that in 2004 he'd signed all his assets over to an insolvency practitioner.

He had used a "protected trust deed" to keep creditors at bay, an alternative to full blown bankruptcy.

The use of the deed meant he was not barred from elected office, but it was unclear if it should have disqualified him from his role as "partner director" with Culture and Sport Glasgow, a charitable organisation set up by the council.

In his statement Mr Dornan said: "In light of a report in one of today's newspapers, I have decided to step aside as the SNP candidate in the Glasgow North East by-election.

This of course means the SNP will have to find a new candidate. Given that Dornan is the opposition leader on Glasgow City Council, one would presume that whoever they get won't be as well known as he is.

If i were Labour, i'd call that by-election right now. It's their best chance of winning it.

Hotel Booked for Norwich North

I've just got off the phone from booking a hotal for my trip across to Norwich North next weekend.

£30 gets Tory Activist a bed for one night, with shared shower facilities. In Great Yarmouth. Great.

The problem is that apparently there's a Jehovahs Witnesses convention happening next weekend in Norwich, so all the hotels, B&Bs etc are fully booked.

Ah well, at least I won't have to sleep rough.